Canada’s Ivanhoe Mines (Ivanhoe) revised its 2025 copper production guidance for the Kamoa-Kakula complex in the DRC to 370–420kt Cu, a 28% reduction from earlier forecasts.

The revision follows the temporary suspension of underground mining after seismic activity on 18 May caused severe flooding. Mining resumed in the western section on 7 June, with dewatering of the eastern side scheduled for August. A new mining area will be developed in the east, isolated from ongoing water removal activities.

Ivanhoe also withdrew its 2026 target of 600kt Cu, citing the need to reassess geotechnical risks, including further seismic events. Preliminary findings attribute the seismic activity to cascading ore, which caused stress redistribution onto support pillars, potentially exacerbated by poor geological conditions. The mine plan will be revised to widen pillars, adjust sequencing, and enhance monitoring.

Phase 1 and 2 concentrators are currently operating at ~50% capacity using surface stockpiles, while Phase 3 remains unaffected. The Kamoa-Kakula smelter is still on track, with commissioning expected in September and first anode production expected in October. The smelter can operate at a minimum capacity of 50%, producing ~250ktpy of copper.

The revised guidance removes up to 160kt of copper from the 2025 global supply outlook, tightening an already constrained market. With long-term growth hindered by technical, environmental, and geopolitical challenges, this disruption underscores the fragility of new Tier 1 projects. This development may support prices and increase pressure on other producers to accelerate output. Ivanhoe’s pause on its updated development plan introduces short-term uncertainty, although a timing update is expected once geotechnical reviews have concluded.