The May elections could prove decisive for First Quantum's suspended copper operations.

A Reuters report stated that First Quantum Minerals believes the withdrawal of the 121,000t of copper from its disputed Cobre Panama mine can only happen after the Panama national election. General elections are scheduled to be held in Panama on 5 May 2024. 

Cobre is under preservation and safe maintenance after the government ordered the closure of the copper mine last year. Bloomberg reports that First Quantum has embarked on a media blitz ahead of presidential elections in May, hoping that it can gain enough popular support to persuade the next government to allow the mine to restart. First Quantum says it’s spending US$15M to US$20M per month to preserve the site and has committed to reforesting more than 11,000 hectares of Panama’s rainforest — double the area impacted by mining.

Panama's election comes at a challenging time for the country, with the winner set to inherit a struggling economy. Panama may soon lose investment-grade status, debt levels have risen sharply since the pandemic, and the IMF expects GDP growth of just 2.5% this year, down from 7.5% last year. A big part of this cut relates to Cobre's suspension, with the operation thought to account for some 5% of the country's GDP.

First Quantum will hope that the new administration seeks a resolution of the current situation at Cobre. Eight candidates are set to appear on the May 5 ballot, with polls showing a tight race. Among the five frontrunners, three have vowed to continue with the plans to close the Cobre Panama mine, one has pledged a referendum on the matter and another has not formally indicated his intentions, according to Reuters.