The ferroalloys market in 2025 has undergone significant shifts, including persistent oversupply, evolving trade policies, and growing competition among global suppliers - all set against a backdrop of changing demand patterns and energy transition trends.

As the year closes, industry players are assessing what these developments mean for the future, and where the biggest risks and opportunities lie in 2026.

Oversupply and price pressures

Most ferroalloys segments remained oversupplied throughout 2025, including ferrosilicon, manganese, and vanadium. Despite production cuts, such as reduced vanadium output in China and lower manganese production in Australia, India, and South Africa, prices continued to decline globally, with the notable exception of the US market.

This persistent oversupply, coupled with weak demand growth, created a challenging environment for producers and traders alike.

Geopolitical and trade dynamics

Beyond market fundamentals, geopolitical factors played a major role in shaping the industry. Trade restrictions, tariffs, and anti-dumping and safeguards measures intensified, particularly in the USA and EU, and similar actions are expected in Asia as competition heats up among suppliers from China, Russia, and India.

These trade wars and policy shifts have introduced significant uncertainty, making it harder for companies to plan and invest confidently.

Demand trends: Steel slows, energy transition rises

Carbon steel production remains the backbone of ferroalloys demand and will likely continue to dominate for the next decade. However, by 2025, growth had not only slowed significantly, but had been replaced by a decline in steel production in many regions, primarily in China, which has historically driven global consumption.

Emerging applications, such as stainless steel, electrical steel, batteries, and renewable energy technologies, are gaining traction but still represent a small share of overall demand. Most of these developments remain concentrated in China, creating systemic risk for global supply chains.

Market outlook for 2026

As we look ahead, two themes stand out:

• Trade policy escalation: Expect more tariffs, safeguard investigations, and anti-dumping measures as governments seek to protect domestic industries. These could reshape global supply chains and pricing structures.
• Diversification of energy transition investments: Watch for new projects in EVs, batteries, and solar outside China. Greater geographic diversification will be critical to reducing global dependency on a single market.
  

The industry’s ability to adapt to these dynamics will determine whether 2026 brings stabilisation, or further disruption. For industry stakeholders, proactive strategies and close monitoring of trade and demand trends will be essential to navigate the challenges and opportunities ahead.

Dive deeper into the dynamics shaping ferroalloys markets by watching our analysis here.

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